June ‘25 Market Update

While we are presenting our typical monthly data and related charts (see below) for the last 15 months showing similar recent trends, we felt it prudent to take a bit longer time horizon to compare Year over Year JUNE results (Peak Selling Season) from 2022 to current 2025.

Let’s start with the 30-year mortgage rates during June of each year: 5.25% (2022), 6.71% (2023), 6.92% (2024), and 6.82% (2025). Obviously, rates have not varied much since 2023, when the Federal Reserve stopped raising the Federal Funds rates in July 2023. While the Federal Reserve’s mandate is to manage the overall economy (not just housing 😊), it seems apparent their efforts have resulted in a bearish housing market by looking at the figures released below by Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center for Texas’ four major markets.

BEST TO VIEW ON COMPUTER TO ELIMINATE TABLE ALIGNMENT ISSUES

                                                                           AUSTIN               DALLAS              HOUSTON               SAN ANTONIO

JUNE SALES (UNITS) : SLOWED NOTICEABLY & STABILIZED
                                             2022                    3,441                   9,859                   9,994                   3,826
                                             2023                    3,147                   9,415                   8,783                   3,406
                                             2024                    2,806                   8,276                   8,657                   3,184
                                             2025                    3,006                   9,415                   8,783                   3,406

JUNE AVG PRICE/SF :  DECREASED MODERATELY & STABILIZING (EXCEPT AUSTIN)
2022                    322.21                222.21                184.37                192.27
2023                    283.78                212.68                179.59                183.63
2024                    264.76                213.89                184.67                176.21
2025                    260.30                213.76                181.50                178.07

JUNE ACTIVE LISTINGS : SKYROCKETING (MORE THAN DOUBLED & INCREASING ~30%/YR)
2022                    7,090                   16,455                14,279                7,244
2023                    9,631                   19,605                19,863                10,325
2024                    12,300                25,926                28,335                14,469
2025                    14,876                36,842                37,661                16,577

JUNE MONTHS OF INVENTORY :  SKYROCKETING (ALMOST TRIPLED & INCREASING)
2022                    2.1                        1.8                        1.5                        2.1
2023                    3.7                        2.5                        2.7                        3.6
2024                    4.8                        3.8                        3.9                        5.2
2025                    5.9                        4.8                        5.2                        5.9

SUMMARY: Should the trend of mortgage rates remain roughly the same continue, then we believe these higher inventories will accelerate pricing pressure on sellers or delist their properties allowing buyers the upper hand in negotiations and prices will fall. This makes a tough seller’s market, regardless of preowned or new.

To stabilize these pricing pressures, reduce inventory levels, and improve affordability for buyers, the mortgage rates will need to begin a reasonable downward trend and there has been some recent political pressure on the Federal Reserve to begin lowering rates. Time will tell 😊!